Random Shenmue IV Thoughts.

SMDzero said:
Well they are spending over $1 Billion on GTA6 but it’s going to be derivative more stealing cars and causing mayhem just with a shiny new coat of paint.

A S4 with that budget would change the very fabric of what’s considered to be a videogame shifting the paradigm of the entire industry forward into a new era.

Alas I know that not too many investors have 1 billy on hand to give to YsNet not in this economy.
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Even if they did do the series sales justify it at all? Shenmue across all its releases has probably sold 2-3m max.

That ain't getting anyone anything close that sort of budget. I'm a massive fan, I'll go into bat for the series but there's no way based on current sales that's ever happening.
 
Well Shenmue 1 was a revolutionary game and it sold over 1 Million copies on a DC user base of 3 Million.

That means 1/3rd of all users bought the game.

PS5 has sold 40 million units so the 1/3rd attach rate is 13 million sales @ $60 per unit is $800 Million in revenue.

Plus the $1 Billion investment would cover both Shenmue 4 and 5 (the games would be worked on simultaneously).

Assuming a 30% sales drop off from S4 to S5, we can expect S5 to sell about 9 million copies bringing in another $450 million taking the gross revenue up of both games to $1.25 Billion.

The investor would walk away with a cool $250 Million profit on their $1 Billion investment (25%)
 
SMDzero said:
Well Shenmue 1 was a revolutionary game and it sold over 1 Million copies on a DC user base of 3 Million.

That means 1/3rd of all users bought the game.

PS5 has sold 40 million units so the 1/3rd attach rate is 13 million sales @ $60 per unit is $800 Million in revenue.

Plus the $1 Billion investment would cover both Shenmue 4 and 5 (the games would be worked on simultaneously).

Assuming a 30% sales drop off from S4 to S5, we can expect S5 to sell about 9 million copies bringing in another $450 million taking the gross revenue up of both games to $1.25 Billion.

The investor would walk away with a cool $250 Million profit on their $1 Billion investment (25%)
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Straight up not happening.

By the end of the DC Shenmue had a 10% attachment rate to the console which is bloody brilliant but even that didn't translate to the PS4 with Shenmue 3 or the HD releases.
 
SMDzero you are ultra troll man! :LOL: You are putting salt in the wound.
 
spud1897 said:
Straight up not happening.

By the end of the DC Shenmue had a 10% attachment rate to the console which is bloody brilliant but even that didn't translate to the PS4 with Shenmue 3 or the HD releases.
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The ultimate 10% attachment is misleading. When the DC was discontinued Sega practically gave away the rest of their inventory massively and artificially increasing the number of DCs “sold”
 
I think Shenmue III had no support from Sony in 2019 and very little marketing from Deep Silver. A game needs very strong marketing to win over 1/3 of console owners. More budget than the development budget, if we talk seriously. The game should also have a lot of paid reviews in the mainstream media. I don't think Sony treated Shenmue III the same way they treated other third party exclusives like FF7 Remake. They didn't pay for shenmue review scores, the way they payed for all other important ps4 exclusives.

Something I remember from the day of the premiere. Basically, when a big Sony exclusive comes out, almost all of my PSN friends that are online play it. Dead Stranding comes out, everyone plays it, Last of Us comes out, they all play it, Spider-Man comes out, everyone plays it....you get the logic. Since I bought Shenmue 3 from the Epic store, I powered up the PS4 just to see how many people are playing it from the friend list. Zero! Over time, out of 35 friends, two played it that are old fans from dreamcast versions.

That is, Shenmue 3 was literally ignored by the playstation generation. Is it because of bad marketing and no support from Sony... or just that Shenmue games doesn't have its own territory anymore? Of the old PS fans I know, almost all dislike Shenmue games (for no reason) and doesn't feel like playing them. They don't feel Shenmue 3 like a Playstation game. Sony should have done something to change this attitude... If they want Shenmue as a successful exclusive in their strategy.
 
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Man I wish Shenmue 2 came out on PS2 instead of Xbox. I think we’d live in a different world of not having to fight for more games.
 
Guys, we made it to the 100th page 🥂 but still no Shenmue 4.
 
shadowreaper said:
Man I wish Shenmue 2 came out on PS2 instead of Xbox. I think we’d live in a different world of not having to fight for more games.
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Shenmue on PS2 would have required huge cuts to texture data but I agree.

I wonder how Shenmue 2 would have fared on GameCube?

Probably should have just gone multi-plat.
 
ShenSun said:
Who is this new Sega COO wanting to reboot the ips? Do we have links? Socials? etc?
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Might be mistaking CEO with COO, but is it not the son of Sammy's infamously boring and Dreamcast era-Sega-killing chairman? Talk about a 180 from one family generation to another!
 
when they make shenmue 4, they should make the ingame arcade accessible from the game start menu, like shenmue 2 (dreamcast). back when i owned a dreamcast, i would often boot up shenmue just to play QTE title.
( god, ive forgot.. was it shenmue 1 or just s2 which had the arcade accessible from the game start menu?)

on a side note - shenmue, qte title mobile phone edition? that would be cool.
 
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Shenmue 2 disc 4 Collection feature

Unofficially, I like to refer as Shenmue 2 Passport
 
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BruceWayne911 said:
Any chance Epic Games pays YSNet $20M for lifetime exclusivity?
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Epic Games gave Remedy about 70-80 mil USD for Alan Wake 2 (development + marketing)
But honestly i have no idea how Remedy came into contact with Epic Games.
They worked with 505 Games for Control and Control had like half the budget.
So they probably had a really really good Alan Wake 2 preview / concept presentation / demo for Epic Games.
Otherwise i dont see how Epic would give that kind of money to a independent studio.
 
Tosh said:
Epic Games gave Remedy about 70-80 mil USD for Alan Wake 2 (development + marketing)
But honestly i have no idea how Remedy came into contact with Epic Games.
They worked with 505 Games for Control and Control had like half the budget.
So they probably had a really really good Alan Wake 2 preview / concept presentation / demo for Epic Games.
Otherwise i dont see how Epic would give that kind of money to a independent studio.
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$20M is a whole lot less than $70M/$80M
 
BruceWayne911 said:
$20M is a whole lot less than $70M/$80M
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Thats true yeah but i dont know how they came into contact.
Maybe someone at Epic was just a big Alan Wake fan and Remedy told them that nobody else
is interested in making a sequel. Epic Games paid for the whole thing so they 100% believed in this project
even tho they never worked with Remedy before. I dont know what the process of this deal looked like.
Theres no public information.
 
Tosh said:
Thats true yeah but i dont know how they came into contact.
Maybe someone at Epic was just a big Alan Wake fan and Remedy told them that nobody else
is interested in making a sequel. Epic Games paid for the whole thing so they 100% believed in this project
even tho they never worked with Remedy before. I dont know what the process of this deal looked like.
Theres no public information.
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Alan Wake 2 sold ~850k units on console as of November. https://www.ign.com/articles/alan-wake-2s-seemingly-dire-sales-dont-paint-the-full-picture

The fact that it likely sold ~1M units in one month on a 70M Euro budget and is considered a flop should tell you everything you need to know about Shenmue 3.

BruceWayne911 said:
$20M is a whole lot less than $70M/$80M
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Alan Wake is a more popular IP than Shenmue (over 3M units sold) and Remedy is a developer with a proven and consistent track record. When your game's budget is in the tens of millions, you need to sell over a million units. Shenmue does not have the sales to justify a $20M budget; the only path forward for the series is at a drastically reduced scope.
 
iknifaugood said:
Alan Wake 2 sold ~850k units on console as of November. https://www.ign.com/articles/alan-wake-2s-seemingly-dire-sales-dont-paint-the-full-picture

The fact that it likely sold ~1M units in one month on a 70M Euro budget and is considered a flop should tell you everything you need to know about Shenmue 3.


Alan Wake is a more popular IP than Shenmue (over 3M units sold) and Remedy is a developer with a proven and consistent track record. When your game's budget is in the tens of millions, you need to sell over a million units. Shenmue does not have the sales to justify a $20M budget; the only path forward for the series is at a drastically reduced scope.
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It's too bad Shenmue 3 didn't sell 3M units to justify a budget.

I think it was a mistake to make S3 "for the fans" that was never gonna translate into big sales.
 
iknifaugood said:
Alan Wake 2 sold ~850k units on console as of November. https://www.ign.com/articles/alan-wake-2s-seemingly-dire-sales-dont-paint-the-full-picture

The fact that it likely sold ~1M units in one month on a 70M Euro budget and is considered a flop should tell you everything you need to know about Shenmue 3.


Alan Wake is a more popular IP than Shenmue (over 3M units sold) and Remedy is a developer with a proven and consistent track record. When your game's budget is in the tens of millions, you need to sell over a million units. Shenmue does not have the sales to justify a $20M budget; the only path forward for the series is at a drastically reduced scope.
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SMDzero said:
It's too bad Shenmue 3 didn't sell 3M units to justify a budget.

I think it was a mistake to make S3 "for the fans" that was never gonna translate into big sales.
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Honestly we don't know what Shenmue can do in today's climate because we paid for Shenmue 3. Shenmue going forward will be smaller in scope because now we have assets and resources in place. Those Kickstarter numbers alone shoukd grant us enough wiggle room to see how Shenmue does without retail investment. Some of thus Shenmue criticism is unwanted because we know the Shenmue anime outperformed expectations and they still canned it. Alot if thise corporate numbers also come do to greed I guarantee Alan Wake 2 is making money just not printing excessive amounts and at the end of the day that's what matter.
 
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