With Covid having such a knock on game development it could be a very, very long time before IV is released.
I'm kinda looking at it this way:
- The Animation keeps the series in the hearts and minds of players
- Starting from the beginning, it invites new fans into the fold including non-gamers
- During production of the series, this gives Yu a timeframe to seek investors for Shenmue IV (assuming he doesn't have those already) as well as another reason for them to invest (cross media promotion)
This then goes one of the following ways:
- If no investors are found, and the anime is a success, then the series can continue as an animation. 'New' fans get to experience the story and help create a hit show. 'Old' fans have something new to enjoy, and will finally get closure to a story started two decades ago.
- If investors are found, and the anime is a success, this gives Yu the chance to develop Shenmue IV while the anime continues with the second series, covering the ending of Shenmue II and the entirety of Shenmue III. That timeframe could lead to development of both the Shenmue IV game and the Shenmue IV anime being produced in tandem, so non-gamers can watch, and players can play - perhaps, the game could have animated cutscenes then too - to drastically reduce the production cost of the game, and to ensure 'a single vision' of the game is carried forward.
- Worst case scenario, If no investors are found, and the show is a failure, then Yu can move on, knowing he did the best he could to finish the saga. With the buzz the series announcement made and the game still holding the kickstarter record, I very much doubt it.
I think there's still a lot of unknowns at this point. For all we know the anime could be years off. How much involvement do Sega have? Do Deep Silver have first refusal on sequels/publishing rights? Is the anime only of Shenmue I & II as that's what Sega own?