What is your estimated global sales of shenmue 3

All of you bring up some really good points.

Busy with work at the moment so not sure when I’ll get a chance to do a proper dig and, to be honest, I’m not sure it would go much beyond looking at the growth in the game’s player base over the last few months anyway (which has limited value).

One thing I did notice while researching something the other day though is Shenmue 3’s impressive performance relative to Persona 5 Royal.

At the time of writing, P5R has 13,263 tracked users on PSN Profiles and 10,018 on PSN Trophy Leaders. Comparatively, Shenmue 3 has 4,543 and 5,083 respectively. Given the latter’s issues with tracking players who don’t unlock a single trophy though, these figures are probably closer to 5,679 and 6,354.

Persona 5 Royal had shifted 1.4m copies by July of this year, so assuming this number hasn’t increased too drastically and that the ratios of S3 to P5R players are accurate on the trophy sites, they suggest somewhere between 599,457 and 887,962 copies of S3 in circulation on PS4.

To be clear, I don’t think the ratios are right, but comparing S3 to other 1m+ releases typically yields results that are at least over the 250,000 copies mark - with some, like P5R, being considerably higher.

At this point, the only way I can see us finding out how many copies were sold is if the game breaks the 1m mark, somebody leaks the information or Sony accidentally release info that allows people to work out player totals like they did a few years back.
Thanks for the additional information @tomboz. Much appreciated
 
My god, the level of TRIGGERED I get when I see people complaining about S3 not ending the story...
It makes me scratch my head that they act like it was supposed to. It's been said, for years, it wouldn't. Yet the media ran stories acting surprised it didn't, the same outlets who ran stories years ago saying it's 5 game etc.
 
Can we all note that Yakuza series has just accumulated 14m sales! That is for the whole lot and please bear in mind that there have been 7 games in the series plus remasters of a number of these. This shows that games outside the big AAA games do not actually sell millions each and therefore Shenmue which has probably sold around 350,000-500,000 copies has done pretty well IMO
 
Can we all note that Yakuza series has just accumulated 14m sales! That is for the whole lot and please bear in mind that there have been 7 games in the series plus remasters of a number of these. This shows that games outside the big AAA games do not actually sell millions each and therefore Shenmue which has probably sold around 350,000-500,000 copies has done pretty well IMO
You’re forgetting Yakuza 0 and all of the Japan only spin-offs too. I’d wager that the last 2 games in the series are probably responsible to a third of those 14m sales.
 
Can we all note that Yakuza series has just accumulated 14m sales! That is for the whole lot and please bear in mind that there have been 7 games in the series plus remasters of a number of these. This shows that games outside the big AAA games do not actually sell millions each and therefore Shenmue which has probably sold around 350,000-500,000 copies has done pretty well IMO

While I agree with your assessment, there are actually 17 games in the series, not 7 (and not including the remasters, which would bring the total number of games to... 21), so yeah, 14 mil for that many titles is still not bad, but not phenomenal either.

You’re forgetting Yakuza 0 and all of the Japan only spin-offs too. I’d wager that the last 2 games in the series are probably responsible to a third of those 14m sales.

1 and 2 sold around 1 million each, when they released on the PS2, so that knocks it down to 15 games for the final 12 million or so.
 
So with shenmue 3 being in top 20 for November on Steam does.that mean we are likely in for higher sales overall than we originally envisioned. Would it be around 750k-1 mil across all.platforms and including Kickstarter or is that to high/low?
 
So with shenmue 3 being in top 20 for November on Steam does.that mean we are likely in for higher sales overall than we originally envisioned. Would it be around 750k-1 mil across all.platforms and including Kickstarter or is that to high/low?
Too high I would say, If someone put a gun to my head I would say around 250 - 300k. Which i still think is respectable for a game which pre-sold 70.000 copies via KS to the dedicated fanbase up front which aren't counted
 
Too high I would say, If someone put a gun to my head I would say around 250 - 300k. Which i still think is respectable for a game which pre-sold 70.000 copies via KS to the dedicated fanbase up front which aren't counted
Im with you on that estimate.
 
Have Deep Silver ever released official numbers on any of their titles though? I think maybe the odd one or two, but usually they keep it close to their chest.
 
Have Deep Silver ever released official numbers on any of their titles though? I think maybe the odd one or two, but usually they keep it close to their chest.
Nope. Nothing. For anybody interested though; since November, tracked players on PSN Profiles and PSN Trophy Leaders have jumped from 4,543 and 5,083 to 4,805 and 5,483 respectively. This equates to an increase in total players of between 6 and 8 percent. Not too bad for a game that’s now more than a year old. SteamSpy estimates still suggest that the game has sold fewer than 20,000 copies on the platform though, which is not so great considering how heavily discounted it was at launch.
 
Nope. Nothing. For anybody interested though; since November, tracked players on PSN Profiles and PSN Trophy Leaders have jumped from 4,543 and 5,083 to 4,805 and 5,483 respectively. This equates to an increase in total players of between 6 and 8 percent. Not too bad for a game that’s now more than a year old. SteamSpy estimates still suggest that the game has sold fewer than 20,000 copies on the platform though, which is not so great considering how heavily discounted it was at launch.
I'm not sure if this helps but it did end up in the top 20 revenue sales for new games in November despite the discount.

I can't recall what games were also in the list but it must have done fairly ok to make that list?

Though Steamspy tends to be relatively ok in terms of estimates.
 
Have Deep Silver ever released official numbers on any of their titles though? I think maybe the odd one or two, but usually they keep it close to their chest.
I couldn't tell you.


More than a year after the original release.
I'm begining to think we will never get those numbers.
Tho, an indication that the game did at least "well" would be a Shenmue 4 anouncement, and so far, we have nothing
 
I couldn't tell you.


More than a year after the original release.
I'm begining to think we will never get those numbers.
Tho, an indication that the game did at least "well" would be a Shenmue 4 anouncement, and so far, we have nothing
All we got from them was that the game did "fine" (Lars Wingford, CEO of Embracer Group who owns Deep Silver.)
He also acknowledged that it was a niche title.
As we now know from Cedric, they are creating promotional materials for S4 to show to potential publishers. From that it's clear that either 1) DS weren't actually satisfied enough with the sales of S3 to put up funding for S4 or 2) YSNet/Cedric didn't want to link up with them again after S3, for whatever reason(s).
I think this is most likely where the anime will come in though, help drum up some more interest, which is always a good thing.
 
Deep Silver does announcements for sales numbers IF the sales numbers
are really really good or really really surprising.
If the game 'just' sold okay-ish - good or if the game was part of some controversy
like Metro Exodus or Shenmue 3, they are not going to give out any real numbers.

And i think its not very surprising. I mean of course you will get the sales numbers for stuff
like Ghost of Tsushima, Sekiro, Cyberpunk, FF7 Remake and so on BECAUSE
they know that the numbers are huge and way beyond anything a 'normal' studio can achieve.

I doubt that we will hear anything from DS about this topic.
If they were interested in telling us the sales numbers, they would have already done it.

And this is not some Deep Silver only thing. For example, do we have any official numbers for Yakuza 7 from Sega?
No we dont.
 
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