Shenmue IV Will Happen - Here's Why!

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Looks like YS is working on everything BUT Shenmue 4. This is quite frustrating to say the least. We are in the same position we were back in 2003-2015.

Time is on nobody's side and we needed Shenmue 4 by YESTERDAY imo. Sega has managed to re open healed wounds by their stubbornness.

This waiting game for S4 wouldn't even be happening if Sega would just help YS by funding the damn game already.

I'm sure Air Twister is not a bad game, but I'm not interested in that or a new Space Harrier, it's Shenmue 4 or bust. We are getting to old to be stuck in limbo like this again.
 
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spud1897 said:
While I get the frustrations around this all the time YSNET is open and working there's a chance.

Remember he's got to keep that place open first and foremost. If they shut its truly game over.
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That is true. While I want Shenmue 4 more than anything, as long as the lights are on at YS NET there's always a chance.

Shenmue 3 proved that YS can make arcade games in his sleep, so if these smaller scale games can help YS NET than so be it.

I just really want to see that Lan Di redemption arc :(
 
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darksniper said:
That is true. While I want Shenmue 4 more than anything, as long as the lights are on at YS NET there's always a chance.
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It's not to say you don't have a right to be frustrated. You do.

I'm more at SEGA at this point. The amount of money they've pissed away on Hyenas, Sakura Wars mobile could have funded Shenmue 4 and 5 and got some ROI.
 
spud1897 said:
It's not to say you don't have a right to be frustrated. You do.

I'm more at SEGA at this point. The amount of money they've pissed away on Hyenas, Sakura Wars mobile could have funded Shenmue 4 and 5 and got some ROI.
Click to expand...

This is what makes the wait for Shenmue 4 so frustrating and even more so than the wait for 3. We struck lightning in a bottle and got 3 out there but I don't know what it would take to get the 4th game done at this point.

If Sega utilized their RGG team and gave Yu some resources, not only would we have Shenmue 4 and 5, but we would also have Shenmue 0 and Shenmue Kiwami and more.

I feel like we are heading towards being at the mercy of Sega again to realistically get a Shemmue 4 done and that's not a comfortable position to be in at all.
 
It irks me a little bit that you see Yu with all these industry insiders and developers in social media posts, yet none of them are helping him to get Shenmue made. They have connections, they say how much Shenmue meant to them and inspired them and they obviously consider him a big influence of the industry. But they do jack shit lol.
 
spud1897 said:
It's not to say you don't have a right to be frustrated. You do.

I'm more at SEGA at this point. The amount of money they've pissed away on Hyenas, Sakura Wars mobile could have funded Shenmue 4 and 5 and got some ROI.
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I wouldn't have put it past the numbskulls at Sega's HQ to cancel a Shenmue 4 right before it was ready to launch 😅
 
Sonoshee said:
It irks me a little bit that you see Yu with all these industry insiders and developers in social media posts, yet none of them are helping him to get Shenmue made. They have connections, they say how much Shenmue meant to them and inspired them and they obviously consider him a big influence of the industry. But they do jack shit lol.
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I think the gaming industry nowadays is simply too big in terms of costs, risks and so on.
I mean, why do we have 500 Assassins Creed, Fifa, CoD, Souls Like, Open World Action RPG etc games?
Because thats the stuff that can compensate the budget costs because it sells really well.
If you want to make a blockbuster type of game, then youre easily looking at a budget of 80+ mil USD.
And as sad as it sounds, but no publisher is going to spend that kind of money
on a japanese story game set in China. Yes, there are a lot of bad AAA games
where you could say that if its okay to make bad AAA games,
then why dont they give a new AAA Shenmue a chance instead?
But even the bad AAA games are all about battles, shooting, style, effects, blood, loot and so on.
Thats probably the reason why they got the green light from the publisher.
All of the stuff that isnt Shenmue.

Then below that, we can look at the AA market, so around 25-45 mil USD maybe,
thats probably more realistic. But here is the next problem:
There actually arent many AA publishers and Shenmue as a concept doesnt really suit any of them.
A lot of AA publishers are european and Shenmue probably isnt even on their radar
and the whole Shenmue 3 order of events probably didnt help either in terms of interest from other publishers.
On the asian side, you can forget Square Enix, Capcom and all of those.
Koei Tecmo could be a match but they wont make a Shenmue game.
There is another good match, a publisher with a series of games with most of them probably being in AA budget range ...
the Yakuza series from Sega. But ... yeah ... nothing to talk about here.

Below that is just the indie market and Shenmues concept is going to be a real problem here
because nobody is going to develop a 3D open world story game
with day & night cycles, changing weather, fully voiced npcs, daily routines, cutscenes
and all of that Shenmue stuff on a indie budget. The world of Shenmue doesnt suit the concept of a indie game.
Yes there are super successful indie games like Stardew Valley
but these games are not expensive to develop and arent made by a big team.
Its not comparable with ressources you need for a full Shenmue game
We saw how Shenmue 3 looked with the help of a european AA publisher.
Shenmue 4 isnt going to magically look 10 times as good with the same range of budget.
Thats if we even find a new publisher in this budget range,
otherwise theres nothing other left than a real downgrade in terms of scale, graphics and so on
and even Yu Suzuki probably doesnt want to do that.

So i think the only realistic scenario that makes the most sense to get a real Shenmue game,
is to find another AA publisher. But which one?
Judging by the time that has passed now, it seems like no other AA publisher made any offers.
So i honestly dont know what to do now.
 
Switch said:
Here's a more extended translation of Suzuki's comments on Shenmue & project work in progress from the IGN Japan livestream:

Yu Suzuki Confirms Desire to Make Shenmue IV (TGS 2023)
https://www.phantomriverstone.com/2023/09/yu-suzuki-confirms-desire-to-make.html
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Thanks again for the translation. I know he doesn’t give much away with regard to details, but it still blows my mind that nobody has picked this up. If Miyamoto or Kojima were to announce that they were working on a new game it would be front page news. Granted, Mr. Suzuki may not be as high profile as either of those two are these days, but his contributions to the industry are no less important; if not more so.
 
I think the opportunity for Shenmue 4 still exists. They simply would need to build on the assets they already created for Shenmue 3. That brought it from Dreamcast to PS4 era and yet it still managed to feel very Shenmue. Now... do I expect the 4th game to be made? Sadly, I don't. Not in this economy where we have a global economic crash and are on the verge of WW3. Just look at the never ending price hikes we're seeing across the board (beyond gaming).

Sega... as usual... decided to give the fanbase the middle finger. I'd say the only things they've been successful with recently are Sonic (very surprised here) and the RGG games which share many similarities to Shenmue.

It's possible that we're having to look at the possibility that Shenmue will not continue as a videogame, and perhaps move forward with a far cheaper medium... novelization... to complete the story. While obviously, not what the fans or Ys would have wanted, it will have been the compromise to get our ending and "see" Lan Di get his comeuppance. So here's my back up idea when the fans feel it's time...

Here in Shenmue Dojo we have a dedicated fanbase and if I remember during the Shenmue 3 excitement, we have connections here that eventually lead to Yu Suzuki. I propose we encourage Yu to move forward with the fans in crowdfunding the costs to self-publish the rest of the Shenmue story as a set of novels. We can use the crowd funding resources to hire expert level writers to work with Yu and YsNet directly, using the main outline he has and write however many novels the remainder of the story requires. Costs would include, writers, editers, cover artists (if not done by YsNet) and other publishing costs... especially marketing.

What are your thoughts?
 
As long as Yu-San is still interested in making Shenmue 4 the dream is allive. The comments from the TGS 2023 are encouraging. It does not mean that anything is happening at the moment but it might happen eventually.

But like @Telekill said there is also the posibility the franchise is not going to be continued as a video game.

I would not mind finishing the story via novel ar manga but it would be the same as a game.

But different ending is better than no ending at all that's for sure.

Making S4 a reallity is a very difficult matter. The gaming lanscape is very different place now compared to the past.

it is just about profite. No bi publisher is going to invest into risky project like Shenmue 4.

The only chance to create enough funds for S4 would a smaller publisher.

The only question remains is which publisher could fit the bill?

I cannot think of any small publisher at the moment to be honest that could bring Shenmue 4 back to live.
 
I believe we'll see a Shenmue 4. The mere fact that Yu Suzuki already has the assets and mechanics from Shenmue, integrated into a modern engine like the Unreal Engine in 2023, is promising. If Shenmue 3 cost 20 million to produce, Shenmue 4 should cost significantly less. Indeed, if Yu Suzuki opts to forgo voice acting for less significant dialogues, such as those with NPCs, or if he finds a way to generate these voices using AI, the costs could be further reduced. Yu Suzuki has been working behind the scenes for years to bring Shenmue back into the spotlight. He revived the series at a time when many had lost all hope. I have full confidence in him. Today, he is in a better position than before the release of Shenmue 3. Personally, I'm optimistic.
 
Kenzo38130 said:
I believe we'll see a Shenmue 4. The mere fact that Yu Suzuki already has the assets and mechanics from Shenmue, integrated into a modern engine like the Unreal Engine in 2023, is promising. If Shenmue 3 cost 20 million to produce, Shenmue 4 should cost significantly less. Indeed, if Yu Suzuki opts to forgo voice acting for less significant dialogues, such as those with NPCs, or if he finds a way to generate these voices using AI, the costs could be further reduced. Yu Suzuki has been working behind the scenes for years to bring Shenmue back into the spotlight. He revived the series at a time when many had lost all hope. I have full confidence in him. Today, he is in a better position than before the release of Shenmue 3. Personally, I'm optimistic.
Click to expand...

I totally see Suzuki using AI for Shenmue 4 production, it would be the evolution of his method of work since Shenmue 2 (magic weather, magic room etc.).
You're right, it could help to lower costs of dub.
 
I just hope he has a clear milestone where if Shenmue 4 hasn’t been greenlit Yu will look into another medium.

I still have hopes that the audio leak is real in some capacity. Whether it’s a pitch or a pre-release of a trailer, who knows. I know the chances are slim that it’s real but I haven’t given up hope.
 
Sonoshee said:
It irks me a little bit that you see Yu with all these industry insiders and developers in social media posts, yet none of them are helping him to get Shenmue made.
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Im not that sure about that, Sonomyheart. We don't really know whats really cooking behind the curtains of the japanese industry and under the dictatorship of No Disclose clausules. Personally whenever this people post about meeting Yu-san I note a sense of something more than what they share... seem more fond than just the "mere" meeting the legend.

Sonoshee said:
They have connections, they say how much Shenmue meant to them and inspired them and they obviously consider him a big influence of the industry.
Click to expand...
These are the kind of developers innuendos that I was meaning too, those which causes me the impression that Shenmue 4 has been under heavy restructurement since the early stages just after finishing S3 (probably S4 followed a template very similar to 3 because the initial thought of a major success and this has been/is being repurposed).

@Tosh a couple of years back I would agreed with you in the matter of no publisher willing to deal with a game so focused in asian culture. Im still agreeing with no american nor european publisher. But the silence of japanese publishers itches me because I truly believe that nowadays they're solid candidates for that. There has been lots of buzz in japanese industry to return leading the wagon and this pass by gaining cultural identity with more niche-asian based titles without repeating the past mistake of rejecting titles that appeal a more wide range of the western audience. This is the reason imho of Sega hard bet on RGG and Persona.

Im more leaning towards the uncertain market and dangerous global situation cleverly pointed by @Telekill which prompts companies to be overselective about important releases. Because "if we can make more profits in a few years from here" when things settle down, they -the companies- will do just that.
A hint of this is the waves of remasters or even just enhanced ports (very lazy at times) as those are right now legacy, yes, but usually not "the most important IPs". They're risking near zero.

Excuse the brick.
 
Tosh said:
I think the gaming industry nowadays is simply too big in terms of costs, risks and so on.
I mean, why do we have 500 Assassins Creed, Fifa, CoD, Souls Like, Open World Action RPG etc games?
Because thats the stuff that can compensate the budget costs because it sells really well.
If you want to make a blockbuster type of game, then youre easily looking at a budget of 80+ mil USD.
And as sad as it sounds, but no publisher is going to spend that kind of money
on a japanese story game set in China. Yes, there are a lot of bad AAA games
where you could say that if its okay to make bad AAA games,
then why dont they give a new AAA Shenmue a chance instead?
But even the bad AAA games are all about battles, shooting, style, effects, blood, loot and so on.
Thats probably the reason why they got the green light from the publisher.
All of the stuff that isnt Shenmue.

Then below that, we can look at the AA market, so around 25-45 mil USD maybe,
thats probably more realistic. But here is the next problem:
There actually arent many AA publishers and Shenmue as a concept doesnt really suit any of them.
A lot of AA publishers are european and Shenmue probably isnt even on their radar
and the whole Shenmue 3 order of events probably didnt help either in terms of interest from other publishers.
On the asian side, you can forget Square Enix, Capcom and all of those.
Koei Tecmo could be a match but they wont make a Shenmue game.
There is another good match, a publisher with a series of games with most of them probably being in AA budget range ...
the Yakuza series from Sega. But ... yeah ... nothing to talk about here.

Below that is just the indie market and Shenmues concept is going to be a real problem here
because nobody is going to develop a 3D open world story game
with day & night cycles, changing weather, fully voiced npcs, daily routines, cutscenes
and all of that Shenmue stuff on a indie budget. The world of Shenmue doesnt suit the concept of a indie game.
Yes there are super successful indie games like Stardew Valley
but these games are not expensive to develop and arent made by a big team.
Its not comparable with ressources you need for a full Shenmue game
We saw how Shenmue 3 looked with the help of a european AA publisher.
Shenmue 4 isnt going to magically look 10 times as good with the same range of budget.
Thats if we even find a new publisher in this budget range,
otherwise theres nothing other left than a real downgrade in terms of scale, graphics and so on
and even Yu Suzuki probably doesnt want to do that.

So i think the only realistic scenario that makes the most sense to get a real Shenmue game,
is to find another AA publisher. But which one?
Judging by the time that has passed now, it seems like no other AA publisher made any offers.
So i honestly dont know what to do now.
Click to expand...

I agree
Shenmue 1 and 2 were AAA games.
Shenmue 3 was in the range of a AA game, similar to Yakuza games (they usually cost 10 mil. S3 was around 20 mil).

Shenmue 4 must be a AA game too (impossiuble to ask for a AAA, and it would be a creative suicide to downgrade it to indie level). but now that we have the assets ready that can be reused, UE engine etc. this time they could lower the costs to the point of Yakuza games, and so only needs $10mil.

It's not an impossible number, and it would be doable even by Sega if they wanted to do something different between an RGG game and another...
And you don't even to sell many copies to profit, 500k for example will be more than enough for a $10mil game.

If only we could convince Sega... (no hope for other japanese publishers)
 
Suzaku said:
And you don't even to sell many copies to profit, 500k for example will be more than enough for a $10mil game.
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500,000 is a pretty big ask for a niche series, but also nowhere near enough to justify a $10 million budget. Assuming those are full price sales (again, a big ask), they’d be looking at around $30 million gross, but the net profit is significantly less than this.

Epic takes 5% ($1.5m) as a licensing fee for UE5 and Steam/Sony/Microsoft take another 30% or so for all digital sales. For physical sales, manufacturing, shipping, retailer costs, and platform fees end up eating up around 50% of the total sale price, so assuming around half of those 500,000 sales are physical and the other half are digital, the publisher will come away with around $16.5m.

$6.5m may seem like a decent return at first glance, but for them to sell 500,000 copies at $60, they’re going to have to market the game pretty well. Most publishers spend between $0.25 and $0.50 for every dollar spent during development on marketing, which on a $10 million budget, works out to be between $2.5m and $5m, thus bringing the total profit down to just $1.5m - $4m.

Again, that’s still a profit, right, but what if the team goes over budget? By all accounts, the development of Shenmue 1 and 2 dragged on for a lot longer than Sega had originally intended (Nagoshi had to be brought in to wrap things up and get the first game over the line, iirc) and Shenmue 3 was delayed multiple times, which Deep Silver will have had to foot the bill for. Suddenly, that $1.5m - $4m is being used to pay for a delay and the project is in the red. Oh, and YS Net still needs to be paid developer royalties if there is any kind of profit left over.

Even if everything does go smoothly and the game comes out on time, do you really think there are many publishers who will want to take that kind of gamble? The number of people who backed the Kickstarter was nowhere near 500,000, so they’d be banking on a lot of non-Shenmue fans picking up the game at full price. Sure, it’s possible that Mr. Suzuki could find a way to make the game more appealing to mainstream gamers, but who’s to say that he doesn’t alienate some of the existing fans in doing so?

I’m not trying to piss on your picnic or anything and firmly believe that there is a way to make another Shenmue game financially viable, but it is not quite as simple as them just finding a publisher who can afford to drop $10m on the project and then promising 500,000 sales. As fans, it’s easy for us to make these kinds of suggestions on a forum, but in reality, securing funding for a project of this scale is difficult work and is going to take time. It may also take some pretty big compromises on Mr. Suzuki’s part, and so I think that we as a fanbase should prepare ourselves for that.
 
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