Shenmue 3 Sales

[spud1897]

The creator of Tekken says a lot of things. As much as I love VF, we know that in the fighting game landscape, as of today, it's not the one being the most represented nor popular.

He does and his words, when he's talking about a rival that inspired him, carry weight

VF has been left to die by Sega unfortunately but the chances are that the Virtua Fighter name has enough weight and prestige that if it did come back it would create waves. It was the first 3d fighter and the grandfather of them all. Arguably one of the most important games in history.

 

[Aman]

Sure, Yu's name is respected, but for what?

Would Epic back him to create new IPs? Or just Shenmue 4? Unless Shenmue 3 did well on Epic and Epic is just choosing to be mum about it, I don't see what Epic would get out of such a partnership.

Ueda, Remedy and PlayDead constantly churn out fantastic new IPs. That's what you get when partnering with them - excellent new properties and excellent games in general. Diversity and creative endeavors.

None of the games mentioned by those 3 studios did good on Epic but they are still being supported, Yu and Shenmue should be given the same chance.

 

[Sonoshee]

VF has been left to die by Sega unfortunately

Most of Sega's top IP's have. We only got a new Shenmue, Panzer Dragoon, House of the Dead, Streets of Rage and Space Channel 5 because Sega outsourced them / loaned the licenses to other developers who were interested in making new entries.

I'm glad they weren't so up their own asses not to loan those IP's though, because the genuine Sega fans are getting more of the franchises they love. Sega themselves don't care about anything anymore except Yakuza and Sonic and it shows.

 

[24Nathan]

One is an educated guess though.

Except that it isn't when your "educated guess" is passed off as absolute fact and nothing else can pierce through its armor. Seems to be a pattern. "It won't get that much" may be 100% correct, but you don't know that, none of us do. The only real data we have besides one week of Spain and Japan is the fact that the publisher said it "performed in line with management expectations", and "financially, it did fine", and that it was "principal revenue driver for Deep SIlver in Q4 2019". You'd think some of you trying to spin everything negatively would tackle those facts, but I guess not.

EDIT: Let's dive in a little deeper. We don't know what numbers Shenmue III produced, we just know that it at least broke even, if what the CEO of Embracer (owns Koch Media, who owns Deep Silver) said has merit. Which it...kind of does. Read the first page here: https://www.shenmuedojo.com/forum/index.php?threads/sales-of-shenmue-iii-where-are-we-now.2735/

Those are some solid numbers. Now, if we take the Japanese chart numbers, Kickstarter numbers, Spain numbers, and CE numbers, we have an estimated total of 96,360 copies sold. That is not an educated guess, it is a solid number.

We have some charts, we have some things being thrown around like "it wasn't on the PSN's digital top whatever", but what does that mean? Nothing really, it's kind of a red herring to some who are for some reason thinking the sales HAVE to be bad news and want others to feel the same. Now, the other numbers...

Sony says PS4 has surpassed 100 million sales. Let's just say that out of the Kickstarter copies, PS4 took up 50% of them (I think it is likely much higher), which gives us 33,534 copies, rounded down. Combined with the very limited sales data, we now have 62,825 copies. That is about 0.06% of the PS4 install base, fully knowing that the copies of Shenmue III sold are guaranteed to be higher, as is the PS4 install base.

Now: https://variety.com/2019/gaming/news/steam-one-billion-accounts-1203201159/

Steam is said to have 1 billion accounts and 90 million active users. If the same percentage of people that I calculated above bought Shenmue III on Steam, that'd still give us 56,542 copies sold, rounded down. Imagine there were 6,542 human beings that actually pledged to not buy Shenmue III due to the Epic deal scarring their lives, and we're still down to 50,000.

The numbers above, while STILL being higher than the 50,000 you scoffed at, don't take into account anything from Epic, anything digital outside of Kickstarter, or any physical copies sold past one week each of Spain, Japan, and the limited editions. That means counting NOTHING from North America or Europe, outside of one week of Spanish physical sales and whatever the number of copies those locations bought of the limited editions. You really think Shenmue III won't move 50,000 off Steam? I'm perfectly willing to say anything possible, from that to this game being the next Valkyria Chronicles and becoming a sleeper hit: https://www.shacknews.com/article/87119/valkyria-chronicles-for-pc-reaches-top-spot-in-steam-sales


EDIT 2: And let's go back to the assumption that Shenmue III has at least broken even, based on the fact that the CEO of the company who owns Shenmue III's publisher's parent company (that's a mouthful) lying to his shareholders would be absolutely asinine. If we take the very conservative number I put above at total copies sold and take away the Kickstarter copies, we are left with 29,291 copies that Deep Silver made money on. That number times $60 (knowing also that there were sales on Amazon, Best Buy, etc. gives us a number of $1,464,550. You think that puny amount for a game that made more on Kickstarter would satisfy whatever Deep Silver spent? I think @Switch had a budget from the IGN Japan roundtable with Yu Suzuki back around release?

Add onto all of this that Shenmue III has two Guinness world records for Kickstarter, and was so popular when it was announced that it literally shut down their site?

 

[GhostTrick]

Except that it isn't when your "educated guess" is passed off as absolute fact and nothing else can pierce through its armor. Seems to be a pattern. "It won't get that much" may be 100% correct, but you don't know that, none of us do. The only real data we have besides one week of Spain and Japan is the fact that the publisher said it "performed in line with management expectations", and "financially, it did fine", and that it was "principal revenue driver for Deep SIlver in Q4 2019". You'd think some of you trying to spin everything negatively would tackle those facts, but I guess not.

EDIT: Let's dive in a little deeper. We don't know what numbers Shenmue III produced, we just know that it at least broke even, if what the CEO of Embracer (owns Koch Media, who owns Deep Silver) said has merit. Which it...kind of does. Read the first page here: https://www.shenmuedojo.com/forum/index.php?threads/sales-of-shenmue-iii-where-are-we-now.2735/

Those are some solid numbers. Now, if we take the Japanese chart numbers, Kickstarter numbers, Spain numbers, and CE numbers, we have an estimated total of 96,360 copies sold. That is not an educated guess, it is a solid number.

We have some charts, we have some things being thrown around like "it wasn't on the PSN's digital top whatever", but what does that mean? Nothing really, it's kind of a red herring to some who are for some reason thinking the sales HAVE to be bad news and want others to feel the same. Now, the other numbers...

Sony says PS4 has surpassed 100 million sales. Let's just say that out of the Kickstarter copies, PS4 took up 50% of them (I think it is likely much higher), which gives us 33,534 copies, rounded down. Combined with the very limited sales data, we now have 62,825 copies. That is about 0.06% of the PS4 install base, fully knowing that the copies of Shenmue III sold are guaranteed to be higher, as is the PS4 install base.

Now: https://variety.com/2019/gaming/news/steam-one-billion-accounts-1203201159/

Steam is said to have 1 billion accounts and 90 million active users. If the same percentage of people that I calculated above bought Shenmue III on Steam, that'd still give us 56,542 copies sold, rounded down. Imagine there were 6,542 human beings that actually pledged to not buy Shenmue III due to the Epic deal scarring their lives, and we're still down to 50,000.

The numbers above, while STILL being higher than the 50,000 you scoffed at, don't take into account anything from Epic, anything digital outside of Kickstarter, or any physical copies sold past one week each of Spain, Japan, and the limited editions. That means counting NOTHING from North America or Europe, outside of one week of Spanish physical sales and whatever the number of copies those locations bought of the limited editions. You really think Shenmue III won't move 50,000 off Steam? I'm perfectly willing to say anything possible, from that to this game being the next Valkyria Chronicles and becoming a sleeper hit: https://www.shacknews.com/article/87119/valkyria-chronicles-for-pc-reaches-top-spot-in-steam-sales


EDIT INCOMING

50 000 copies in November ?
Good luck with that.

Just for the record, before being feature in a Monthly Bundle, Shenmue I-II was around 50-75k on Steamspy after a year.

And that is tangible data. Unlike that weird calculation in which you translate a 0.06% sale userbase from PS4 to the number of active users on Steam.

For one, an active user on Steam isn't an active buyer. This is actually fairly documented and you'll read from multiple analysis, mainly from Steamspy when it used to be reliable that there are a lot of overlapping audiences. The core audience that buys a lot of games is actually smaller than 90M active users.

And why I think it wont sell that much in a month ?

Because I look at how similar titles performed. Even a game like Yakuza Kiwami 2, launching at 30 dollars, took a few months to pass the 100k mark on Steam.

As for being the next Valkyria Chronicles... please let's be real my friend. You really think it's going to move a million units ?

You want to know why Valkyria Chronicles was a big hit on Steam ?
- It's from a popular genre on PC (turn based tactical RPGs like XCom)
- It released at a time where Japanese titles were a rarity on PC
- It released for 15 dollars
- It was actually a demanded and critically well received game.

You want to know why Shenmue III likely wont be ?
- It was delayed from it's initial launch, therefore missing the small hype from the release window
- It's not a game that reviewed well, at all
- It may release at full price, or over 30 dollars
- Shenmue I-II didn't sell too hot on Steam

Honestly, all this talk is becoming tiring for me. You guys are acting like as I'm the bad guy here. I'm not telling you that to crush your dreams or make you feel sad. I'm not telling you "It wont sell 50k in a month" just to annoy you. I'm telling you that because those are the kind of datas I've been following for years on that platform. For real, I'm not trying to put you guys down, I'm not trying to kill off your hype. I'm just trying to bring a little bit of reality. Sure, those aren't facts and I cant see the future. You're right when you say "There's nothing to say for sure that Shenmue III won't sell 100 million units".

But there's enough clues and elements to base that educated guess. And not something as clumsy as trying to apply a userbase calculation from another platform.

 

[Thomasina]

A lot of koolaid drinking going on in this topic. You guys are talking about Yu's games as a fan of Yu Suzuki, and talking about Sega IPs as fans of Sega. None of that is relevant in what Epic is doing right now. It's just fandom. Yu doesn't own those IPs and I doubt Epic is going to go out of their way to partner with both Sega and Ys Net to get any of these IPs.

Epic is seeking out modern developers who make great modern games. Remove your fandom and you'll see Ys Net doesn't fit into any of that.

None of the games mentioned by those 3 studios did good on Epic but they are still being supported, Yu and Shenmue should be given the same chance.

We don't know how they sold. Epic knows, and Remedy knows. Ueda doesn't have any games on EGS, and Epic struck a deal to give away both Limbo and Inside. Inside is a 10/10 game, imo. It's an incredible game.

I mean, I love Ico, SotC, and Limbo, but I think Yu's work history is a little more impressive than any of those companies'. Especially considering Remedy only has two games to their name, in their almost 15 years of activity, and even if you included all of Ueda's team Ico projects, that's three games in almost 20 years.

Well, it's what you say - history. Yu hasn't really been doing anything relevant in the past 10 years.

Remedy has Max Payne, Max Payne 2, Alan Wake, Quantum Break, and Control. Those are all absolutely excellent games. I don't know why you would try to downplay any of those games.

Ueda has a game in development right now. It was revealed a couple years ago. I'm sure Epic has seen it and wants to be a part of it. Ico, SotC and TLG are all classics, and two of them have released this gen so they're fresh in people's minds.

 

[spud1897]

A lot of koolaid drinking going on in this topic. You guys are talking about Yu's games as a fan of Yu Suzuki, and talking about Sega IPs as fans of Sega. None of that is relevant in what Epic is doing right now. It's just fandom. Yu doesn't own those IPs and I doubt Epic is going to go out of their way to partner with both Sega and Ys Net to get any of these IPs.

Epic is seeking out modern developers who make great modern games. Remove your fandom and you'll see Ys Net doesn't fit into any of that.


We don't know how they sold. Epic knows, and Remedy knows. Ueda doesn't have any games on EGS, and Epic struck a deal to give away both Limbo and Inside. Inside is a 10/10 game, imo. It's an incredible game.



Well, it's what you say - history. Yu hasn't really been doing anything relevant in the past 10 years.

Remedy has Max Payne, Max Payne 2, Alan Wake, Quantum Break, and Control. Those are all absolutely excellent games. I don't know why you would try to downplay any of those games.

Ueda has a game in development right now. It was revealed a couple years ago. I'm sure Epic has seen it and wants to be a part of it. Ico, SotC and TLG are all classics, and two of them have released this gen so they're fresh in people's minds.

Right stop with the whole rubbish of "you're only talking about the games as fans of Yu Suzuki". Firstly you don't know the position the person is coming from and secondly many people in here have spoken candidly about the wider issues in Sega and letting a whole host of franchises die.

Forgive the public knowledge here but did Yu Suzuki make some of the most influential games of the 20th century??? Oh wait he did. Games like VF, Daytona, Outrun, Space Harrier I was enjoying as a kid, long before I even knew whi Yu Suzuki was.

Control is great. Enjoyed every second of it but if the rumours are true it was not a commercial success.

The rest of your points make sense but coming in here with this marked attitude of screw you all, you're all wrong, is tiresome.

 

[mjqjazzbar]

Control sold badly and Ueda games don’t sell well either. Those are facts. Personally, I struggled with SOTC. It bored me to the end. I’m not sure any Ueda title is more well known than the YS games mentioned in this thread. The Ueda allure was partially tied to his exclusivity to Sony. Will he matter apart from Sony?

 

[GhostTrick]

Control sold badly and Ueda games don’t sell well either. Those are facts. Personally, I struggled with SOTC. It bored me to the end.

Control likely sold better than Shenmue III.
And while Ueda games don't sell too hot, they don't sell badly either. In fact, the remastser of Shadow of the Colossus charted at the first place in UK when it released while selling 70% more than the original game, which also has seen multiple reprints.

As for the comment on SOTC, you're entitled to it.

 

[mjqjazzbar]

I’ve played through it twice for some reason (old and new remaster). I certainly feel I am.

 

[Thomasina]

I have no idea how well Control sold and don't care. It received immense praise. It won tons of GOTY awards. I would imagine that even if a game like Control doesn't sell well, publishers see quality and potential in what Remedy does.

 

[Rydeen]

Remedy has Max Payne, Max Payne 2, Alan Wake, Quantum Break, and Control. Those are all absolutely excellent games. I don't know why you would try to downplay any of those games.

Because none of them are as critically acclaimed, or as important to the history of video games as 90+% of the games Suzuki has directed. You were the one who mentioned portfolios, though; disregarding all of the new IPs Yu Suzuki has put forth over his career, while trying to advance an idea that a portfolio with one or two successful games represents some sort of undeniable pedigree.

 

[24Nathan]

50 000 copies in November ?
Good luck with that.

It's quite possible I missed something, but I wasn't aware you were saying that within a month. It might do that in a month, who knows.

Just for the record, before being feature in a Monthly Bundle, Shenmue I-II was around 50-75k on Steamspy after a year.

And that is tangible data.

Full disclosure, I'm not an expert in tracking PC sales data, so I'm only sharing what I found on a few minutes' worth of research, which includes the following quote from Steam Spy's creator: "
How accurate is the new Steam Spy?
Not very accurate, to be honest."

What’s going on with Steam Spy?

After multiple websites reported that Steam Spy is dead, I think it is time to discuss what is actually going on.

galyonk.in

Cherry picking from a longer blog post? Yes. But your numbers are not solid data like you have again smugly proclaimed, they are again, an estimate at best. Also in said article, while he does mention several times when his new models came up close or almost dead on to actual numbers, sometimes his data might be off by "fivefold" or so.

Unlike that weird calculation in which you translate a 0.06% sale userbase from PS4 to the number of active users on Steam.

Number of players on platform 1, number of players of platform 2. Not sure how those two metrics are that different to be considered weird to compare, but you do you.

For one, an active user on Steam isn't an active buyer. This is actually fairly documented and you'll read from multiple analysis, mainly from Steamspy when it used to be reliable that there are a lot of overlapping audiences. The core audience that buys a lot of games is actually smaller than 90M active users.

I'd be interested in reading these analyses. And it's kind of common sense. I have Steam and a PS4, and the last time I bought a game on either? Months, at least. You think 100 million PS4 users are buying 40 games per day? What was that you said about weird calculations?

As for being the next Valkyria Chronicles... please let's be real my friend. You really think it's going to move a million units ?

You want to know why Valkyria Chronicles was a big hit on Steam ?
- It's from a popular genre on PC (turn based tactical RPGs like XCom)
- It released at a time where Japanese titles were a rarity on PC
- It released for 15 dollars
- It was actually a demanded and critically well received game.

You want to know why Shenmue III likely wont be ?
- It was delayed from it's initial launch, therefore missing the small hype from the release window
- It's not a game that reviewed well, at all
- It may release at full price, or over 30 dollars
- Shenmue I-II didn't sell too hot on Steam

Stats for Shenmue I & II sales data? Something we'd all be interested in hearing, since you're so enlightened. Shenmue III, while we're at it, has a 68 - 69 Metacritic score, which doesn't quite fit your narrative of "not reviewed well, at all", but whatever works to spin your story. All of the points you listed above are anecdotal, except for VC's initial price, which according to this site, was 19.99 rather than 15: https://segmentnext.com/2014/11/12/valkyria-chronicles-steam-launch-success/, and it's critical reception. But demanded? I mean, demand was there, but I don't think people were quite banging down SEGA's door to get it done.

Honestly, all this talk is becoming tiring for me. You guys are acting like as I'm the bad guy here. I'm not telling you that to crush your dreams or make you feel sad. I'm not telling you "It wont sell 50k in a month" just to annoy you. I'm telling you that because those are the kind of datas I've been following for years on that platform. For real, I'm not trying to put you guys down, I'm not trying to kill off your hype. I'm just trying to bring a little bit of reality. Sure, those aren't facts and I cant see the future. You're right when you say "There's nothing to say for sure that Shenmue III won't sell 100 million units".

But there's enough clues and elements to base that educated guess. And not something as clumsy as trying to apply a userbase calculation from another platform.

If it's so tiring, bring some actual data to prove the points you spout as factual knowledge. I don't care how put upon you are that you're just trying to be some kind of savior for us lowly neanderthals. I want Shenmue to sell billions of copies, but I'm also going to sleep just fine if it doesn't. You can stop with the whole savior complex.

Again, numbers of users on platform 1, number of users on platform 2. Knowing full well that not every single one of them buys 90 games every day. I don't know why you're having trouble figuring that out.

 

[code l name]

I’ve played through it twice for some reason (old and new remaster). I certainly feel I am.

SOTC remake was my first experience with Ueda game and it did blow my mind despite its age. Even though the controls were improved from original release, if you are used to modern games it can seem extremely clunky and counterintuitive at times.

I won’t lie there were moments that I experienced great frustration due to the controls. Setting the game to performance mode and making it 60FPS made a huge difference in terms of playability for me, so much so I can’t play the game any other way.

 

[Thomasina]

Because literally none of them are as critically acclaimed, or as important to the history of video games as 90+% of the games Suzuki has directed? That might be why I wasn't concerned with them. Just a guess. You were the one who mentioned portfolios, though, and disregarded all of the new IPs Yu Suzuki has put forth over his career, while trying to advance an idea that a portfolio brimming over with a whole one or two games represents some sort of undeniable pedigree.

I didn't disregard Suzuki's work. His best work is from the 80's, 90's and early 20's. What's the relevance today? The teams Epic partnered with are creating new IPs today.

Too many people on this board take different opinions and criticism of S3, Ys Net, and Suzuki as personal attacks. It's not personal. It's just different opinions. Makes it really hard to have proper discussion when so many people don't want to hear different perspectives.

 

[GhostTrick]

It's quite possible I missed something, but I wasn't aware you were saying that within a month. It might do that in a month, who knows.



Full disclosure, I'm not an expert in tracking PC sales data, so I'm only sharing what I found on a few minutes' worth of research, which includes the following quote from Steam Spy's creator: "
How accurate is the new Steam Spy?
Not very accurate, to be honest."

What’s going on with Steam Spy?

After multiple websites reported that Steam Spy is dead, I think it is time to discuss what is actually going on.

galyonk.in

Cherry picking from a longer blog post? Yes. But your numbers are not solid data like you have again smugly proclaimed, they are again, an estimate at best. Also in said article, while he does mention several times when his new models came up close or almost dead on to actual numbers, sometimes his data might be off by "fivefold" or so.



Number of players on platform 1, number of players of platform 2. Not sure how those two metrics are that different to be considered weird to compare, but you do you.



I'd be interested in reading these analyses. And it's kind of common sense. I have Steam and a PS4, and the last time I bought a game on either? Months, at least. You think 100 million PS4 users are buying 40 games per day? What was that you said about weird calculations?



Stats for Shenmue I & II sales data? Something we'd all be interested in hearing, since you're so enlightened. Shenmue III, while we're at it, has a 68 - 69 Metacritic score, which doesn't quite fit your narrative of "not reviewed well, at all", but whatever works to spin your story. All of the points you listed above are anecdotal, except for VC's initial price and it's critical reception. But demanded? I mean, demand was there, but I don't think people were quite banging down SEGA's door to get it done.



If it's so tiring, bring some actual data to prove the points you spout as factual knowledge. I don't care how put upon you are that you're just trying to be some kind of savior for us lowly neanderthals. I want Shenmue to sell billions of copies, but I'm also going to sleep just fine if it doesn't. You can stop with the whole savior complex.

Again, numbers of users on platform 1, number of users on platform 2. Knowing full well that not every single one of them buys 90 games every day. I don't know why you're having trouble figuring that out.

This is why I said "When Steamspy was accurate and relevant". You'll notice I didn't use TODAY's Shenmue I-II data.

As I said, those are tangible data. And relevant when they were done as opposed to your guesstimates.

(Back then Steamspy had around a 10% accuracy)

And yeah, sorry, 68-69 isn't review well. Like, at all.

The fact that VC is from a genre popular on PC is irrelevant ? Welp.

As for your last sentence, I dont get why you're so upset. Was I disrespectful to you ? Quite the opposite, I just tried to say that I'm not trying to be mean or anything, yet you want to go on a personnal level here.

Heck, you're accusing me of pretending to spout factual knowledge in the VERY SAME SENTENCE I tell "sure, those aren't facts".

Did you even read ? Or did you just get upset because I said it wouldn't sell millions ?

And yes, Valkyria Chronicles was part of a bunch of games that were demanded on PC:

SEGA PC Ports Interview with SEGA Europe's John Clark

PC Invasion get an overview of SEGA's recent PC porting policy from SEGA Europe's SVP of Commercial Publishing, John Clark.

www.pcinvasion.com

 

[GhostTrick]

Also @24Nathan about the userbases:

Your target audience doesn’t exist

Why you shouldn’t talk about “MOBA audience”, “core gamers”, “female gamers” and instead think smaller.

galyonk.in

You can skip to the "What about usual games ?" Title.

 

[24Nathan]

This is why I said "When Steamspy was accurate and relevant". You'll notice I didn't use TODAY's Shenmue I-II data.

Look at the date of the article.

As I said, those are tangible data. And relevant when they were done as opposed to your guesstimates.

What data have you actually presented? The CEO said Shenmue III did financially fine. Which means it didn't flop as some are determined to say...my "guesstimates" are to provide a very lowball, conservative number for sales and the revenue that would've given to prove that the sales and revenue were likely much higher since the CEO wouldn't have said all of those positive things to shareholders if that weren't the case.

(Back then Steamspy had around a 10% accuracy)

Again, when? Look at the date of the article. It almost predates the Shenmue I & II announcement, let alone its release date(s).

And yeah, sorry, 68-69 isn't review well. Like, at all.

Haha, subjective. I'm not saying it's up there in the 90s, but you said "it didn't review well, at all" which is blatantly false. There are plenty of incredibly positive reviews out there, and not just from "YS/SEGA fans".

The fact that VC is from a genre popular on PC is irrelevant ? Welp.

Didn't say that at all, just said it was anecdotal. Meaning, go get some of your data to show how popular this genre is.

As for your last sentence, I dont get why you're so upset. Was I disrespectful to you ? Quite the opposite, I just tried to say that I'm not trying to be mean or anything, yet you want to go on a personnal level here.

I'm going to be honest here from a staff viewpoint. I'm not personally attacked or insulted whatsoever. But from observing your behavior for a while, you tend to come off a lot of the time as very arrogant and smug, which is why I entered the fray in the first place. You may not intend to do so, but that's what it comes across as. I know I've heard concerns of such.

Heck, you're accusing me of pretending to spout factual knowledge in the VERY SAME SENTENCE I tell "sure, those aren't facts".

Did you even read ? Or did you just get upset because I said it wouldn't sell millions ?

Now you did. But I can go back and look at many times where you driveby post, telling someone they are misguided or flat out wrong, while offering next to nothing to back up your point. Such as you did up above, with the whole "Nah, it won't sell 50k" post because, well, you said so? What backs that up? Again, fully acknowledging you may turn out to be 100% right, but that doesn't give you the power to act as if you're the king and all of your royal subjects are blessed by the "reality" you claim you're so helpfully injecting.

And yes, Valkyria Chronicles was part of a bunch of games that were demanded on PC:

SEGA PC Ports Interview with SEGA Europe's John Clark

PC Invasion get an overview of SEGA's recent PC porting policy from SEGA Europe's SVP of Commercial Publishing, John Clark.

www.pcinvasion.com

The answer John Clark gives is not "the fans really, REALLY wanted VC PC, so we delivered!" like he basically gave as the reason for Shenmue I & II. He says a list of things including demand, are considered when porting PC titles.

 

[WuyingRen]

Sony says PS4 has surpassed 100 million sales. Let's just say that out of the Kickstarter copies, PS4 took up 50% of them (I think it is likely much higher), which gives us 33,534 copies, rounded down. Combined with the very limited sales data, we now have 62,825 copies. That is about 0.06% of the PS4 install base, fully knowing that the copies of Shenmue III sold are guaranteed to be higher, as is the PS4 install base.

Now: https://variety.com/2019/gaming/news/steam-one-billion-accounts-1203201159/

Steam is said to have 1 billion accounts and 90 million active users. If the same percentage of people that I calculated above bought Shenmue III on Steam, that'd still give us 56,542 copies sold, rounded down. Imagine there were 6,542 human beings that actually pledged to not buy Shenmue III due to the Epic deal scarring their lives, and we're still down to 50,000.

I’m not sure it makes sense to compare Kickstarter copies on PS4 with potential sales through Steam when the vast majority of Kickstarter ‘sales’ on PC will have already been issued through the Epic games store.

I also don’t think it’s a fair assumption that Shenmue 3 will sell the same amount on PC as it did on PlayStation 4, although even assuming it’s the case, unless there are a huge amount of people who hate Epic enough to have put off buying Shenmue 3 for a year, the majority of PC sales will probably be through the Epic store. I’m sure there will be some who buy the game on both platforms just to have a copy in their Steam library and others who waited for the steam launch because they hate Epic, but unless the launch price is heavily discounted I’d see 50,000+ copies as being a very very good result given the circumstances.

Whilst the way it was presented wasn’t great, Ghost Trick’s opinion that the game would sell less than 50,000 copies on Steam doesn’t seem too outlandish.

 

[orient]

We could argue forever over whether or not Yu Suzuki's stable of games is impressive enough in 2020, or if Shenmue III sold enough, or was received well enough. Only Epic can answer those questions, if it comes to it. The sales front, in particular -- we basically know nothing other than "it wasn't a horrible flop" and "it wasn't a huge success". When it comes to the ROI for Deep Silver, it's all pure guesswork.

For me, Epic Publishing is a positive because it's an option for Shenmue IV...in a world of very few options. Beyond that, who knows what's going to happen, but something tells me Epic would provide better support than Deep Silver's minimal efforts with III.