Random Shenmue III Thoughts

In play4, german Magazine, there is something little with Shenmue III. "Gratis Beilage", a little booklet in the magazine with a little picture of the Steam-Site where you see Ryo and Shenhua with the release date august 2019.
 
Do we know something about the next event in China? Yu is supposed to be there in three days talking about shenmue 3.

Maybe we get some screens..
 
Eh. He's been wrong before. We could get a new screen or two from the China event. Or they might just reshow the same trailer again. Think it can go either way.
 
Reprise said:
Cedric said there won't be any major updates until March at Magic Monaco.
Click to expand...
A few new screens isn't exactly a major update. A major update would be a new trailer, gameplay footage, tonnes of new information, demo release date, or something of that magnitude.
 
I'd rather they give me something specific about the mechanics of the game, specially the combat system, over screenshots or another cinematic trailer. Even just talking about it rather than showing another new trailer would already be a major update for me at this point. If they are really not using the VF system it might be the biggest departure from the originals, probably more than anything else.
 
Although it has nothing to do with Shenmue, I suppose you all know about Monsterboy and the cursed kingdom. One of the legendary games from Sega (this time it's been made by another team). I've just read this game has sold about 50.000 copies in total in its first week and has been released in PS4, XBONE and Switch. They said it's a very good number of sales...

What do you guys think? In my opinion, it doesn't sound like a good amount of sales. I don't know if it could be profitable for the company to sell less than 500.000. Inmediately I thought about S3 sales, it must outnumber by far this figures If we want to see Shenmue 4.
 
For a 2D game with (I assume) a comparatively small team and budget, 50,000 in one week sounds like an amazing number.
 
hazuki00 said:
I've just read this game has sold about 50.000 copies in total in its first week and has been released in PS4, XBONE and Switch. They said it's a very good number of sales...

What do you guys think? In my opinion, it doesn't sound like a good amount of sales.
Click to expand...
It's all relative. I'd be surprised if they spent a few million making Monster Boy, so from that perspective 50k in their first week is strong.

Shenmue III on the other hand is almost certainly a 15-20 million dollar project, putting it firmly in that AA range. Somebody on here said that Cedric Biscay claims Shenmue III needs to sell a million copies (presumably to make money for those involved). That sounds about right to me. It's going to be a challenge, and it's all going to come down to the quality of the game.
 
orient said:
Shenmue III on the other hand is almost certainly a 15-20 million dollar project, putting it firmly in that AA range. Somebody on here said that Cedric Biscay claims Shenmue III needs to sell a million copies (presumably to make money for those involved). That sounds about right to me. It's going to be a challenge, and it's all going to come down to the quality of the game.
Click to expand...

Do you have the link to where Cedric would have said that?

A million copies is a big ask considering the ports have likely done 250-300k so far in sales as my best guess. 3 will generate more hype for sure as it's the true sequel & I'm forgetting that 1 did around a million sales.

Most of us here will double dip or more ontop of the Kickstarter. Marketing is really key into next year. The dynamics of the market have changed hugely since 2 but I do believe there is a market for Shenmue 3. There's been a rise in retro revivals for one, JRPGS are becoming much more popular in the West and people are investing time in the more niche games.

Alot of work to be done but a million sales would be a fantastic achievement.

Edit: I forgot the fact the game is coming to China. Huge market there and as there's lots of Chinese mythology and locations in the game it might well appeal.
 
spud1897 said:
Do you have the link to where Cedric would have said that?
Click to expand...
No, I just seen a post on here referencing it. I'm assuming it's true because it seems a weirdly specific thing to make up, but I can't verify it personally. Maybe someone else can.

A million seems like a lot at first but as you say, there's a lot more hype behind III than I & II. I'm sure Deep Silver will actually market the game as well, which didn't really happen with the rerelease.

Then there's China, and the inevitable Xbox release 6-12 months after launch -- whenever the exclusivity deal lapses with Sony.

Honestly though, I think quality is the key metric here. There are many things that increase your chance of success in the video game industry, some of which boils down to pure luck, but the one thing that's (almost) universal is you've got to put out a great game. There are some exceptions of course *cough* Crash N-Sane Trilogy *cough* but by and large it's true, and if Shenmue III "surprises" people with its quality then it will succeed. If it's met with apathy from the average gamer then we could be in a tricky spot.
 
orient said:
If it's met with apathy from the average gamer then we could be in a tricky spot.
Click to expand...

That's the bit that worries me actually. We shall see. I think gaming is moving beyond the casual market again so the definition of average gamer may well change.
 
Rationally speaking. Shenmue III I believe is more popular than Shenmue I. Which sold over a million copies on a fading system. It's subjective if you want to say it's comparing apples to oranges, but it makes me quite optimistic for it's sales numbers.

My biggest concern is that Shenmue III gets the Duke Nukem Forever treatment. Which is for people to expect the game to be more than what it is. I personally think that Shenmue III is going to feel like a time travel back to the DC in terms of identity and gameplay and I will personally enjoy it, but others won't. Same with DNF, it was exactly what I expected in Duke Nukem game and I thoroughly enjoyed it, but the numbers didn't fare well in it's favor.
 
spud1897 said:
That's the bit that worries me actually. We shall see. I think gaming is moving beyond the casual market again so the definition of average gamer may well change.
Click to expand...


I would bolster that thought by saying it already has changed. The success of the Classic consoles shows nostalgia is at an all-time high. Also, one can look at the success of certain series'.

The Souls series is one that nobody would've expected it's controller-chucking gameplay to ever reach the mainstream, but it did. The same could be argued for Quantic Dream's style of games.
 
I sure hope so. We don't need Shenmue 3 to be the next Duke Nukem Forever, ET, or Sonic 06.
 
I feel Shenmue III will not be as enormous a throwback as some are expecting. It won't be totally different either, but I'm expecting a refreshed and possibly expanded take on the formula of the originals, with added mechanical depth from new systems like Rapport and the Skill Tree.

I suppose the only sticking point is how that will all feel together. Shenmue is very un-gamelike in many respects, so I just wonder how well it'll mesh with very gamey new systems. Still, I definitely trust Yu Suzuki & co to have gotten that right, and I'm looking forward to seeing how they've done it.
 
Don't forget that some games don't sell a million copies the first week it can take several months to reach that target.
 
Shenmue 3 is still an indie game, imho. I do not expect it to sell amazingly. BUT I am hopeful there will be a big marketing push, they're using the best audio equipment and veteran voice talent, I don't believe they'd do that unless there was gonna be good marketing for the game. I could see maybe 150,000 - 200,000 sales after the first 8 months of sales, anything more would be miraculous and amazing.
 
By my best guess the ports have done similar numbers to that already. So with a concentrated marketing push i don't see why it couldn't smash 300k plus. 3 will carry much more hype than the ports. The question comes down to marketing and also how the game is initially received.

If it's positive sales might take off. If not then there's a battle on our hands.
 
I'm confident of higher numbers over the long term, especially considering the inclusion of the Chinese market. Also, I think there will be very positive synergy between 3 and the HD re-releases... I expect a little bump in the HD sales in the couple of months prior to the release of 3.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top