Save Scumming for Dural Gold

Honestly, it is so much easier to obtain in Shenmue 2, so I mainly focus on everything except Gold and focus getting it and KIds Clear Dural in Wan Chai.
 
So today, I got Dural Gold.

Twice.

Odds are still inline with this projection:

Current projection is now:
S-prize: 1/2400
1 prize: 1/100
2 prize: 1/48
3 prize: 1/32
4 prize: 1/16
5 prize: 1/8
(no prize: 3/4)
 
That's a damn fine day. Really wish the console characters were brought over to HK :/
 
Remember when I said I got it twice in one stream?

Something changed before that happened that I didn't consider relevant at the time, but I do now. So I'll post the data and let you decide:

24th December, 1986: 3200 attempts
S-prize: 0 (0%, between 0 and 1/1066)
1 prize: 30 (0.94% (~1/107), between 1/168 and 1/78)
2 prize: 62 (1.94% (~1/51), between 1/68 and 1/41)
3 prize: 96 (3.00% (~1/33), between 1/42 and 1/27)
4 prize: 195 (6.09% (~1/16), between 1/20 and 1/14)
5 prize: 408 (12.75% (~1/8), between 1/9 and 1/7)
No prize: 2409 (75.28% (~3/4), between 73.75% and 76.81%)

25th December, 1986: 1600 attempts
S-prize: 4 (0.25% (1/400), between ? and 1/200)
1 prize: 15 (0.94% (~1/107), between ? and 1/70)
2 prize: 30 (1.88% (~1/53), between 1/84 and 1/39)
3 prize: 41 (2.56% (~1/39), between 1/57 and 1/29)
4 prize: 102 (6.38% (~1/16), between 1/20 and 1/13)
5 prize: 197 (12.31% (~1/8), between 1/10 and 1/7)
No prize: 1211 (75.69% (~3/4), between 73.54% and 77.83%)

For reference, the official odds:
S-prize: 1/400
1 prize: 1/100
2 prize: 1/50
3 prize: 1/10
4 prize: 1/8
5 prize: 1/5

While 3/4/5 prizes are still definitely wrong, I have to say that my attempts on Christmas Day look a lot closer to the official odds than the Christmas Eve attempts. Of course, this sample size is far too small to make any concrete claims - it's still very much within the realm of random chance; but it does seem as though Christmas Day is a "lucky day" in a way that Christmas Eve isn't. I'll be doing more testing today and trying to figure out exactly what's going on.
 
Sorry to bump an old topic.

Ironically enough, I just got Dural Gold in the Pine Game Arcade machine; I didn't even think that's possible.
By contrast, I'm having difficulty with Kids Dural C (clear). Is she only in the Kids machines, or can she be won elsewhere?
 
So I'm trying to gett Dural Gold at the moment on Shenmue 2. I've spent a good couple of hundred $ in the Dural Room in Kowloon and it seems almost bloody impossible to get (I was so damn close to getting it!). Any tips? Should I just try getting it as a drop from the capsule toy machine? Or just not bother? I already missed Dural Clear so I can't get a full set anyway.
 
So I'm trying to gett Dural Gold at the moment on Shenmue 2. I've spent a good couple of hundred $ in the Dural Room in Kowloon and it seems almost bloody impossible to get (I was so damn close to getting it!). Any tips? Should I just try getting it as a drop from the capsule toy machine? Or just not bother? I already missed Dural Clear so I can't get a full set anyway.
You haven’t missed (Kids) Dural Clear- you can get it from the VF kids machine, and in Kowloon there’s one outside Ren’s hideout in Dragon Street (be warned it is extremely rare however, and you will likely spend a ridiculous amount trying to get it)
 
Kids Clear is the Abe Store Dural Gold of Shen2

Gold is actually much easier to get in Hong Kong and Kowloon than Yokosuka. Always get it either on my first day while blowing all my money before my bag is stolen, or at some point along the way.
 
I spent $300 trying to get Gold Dural via the gacha dispensers today. No luck :( Speaking of rare toys though, I'm short one from the Sega set I think - a Dragoon from Panzer Dragoon (or something that looks an awful like it going by the silhouette) and I've not managed to get it even once. Is it super rare or do I just have terrible luck?
 
Somewhat rare, along with the X-Wing and Outrun, but I get them quite a bit while grinding for Clear and Gold.
 
Somewhat rare, along with the X-Wing and Outrun, but I get them quite a bit while grinding for Clear and Gold.
Thanks. I might pass on grabbing it, well more that I don't feel like spending any more time trying to get the damn thing! I might give it one last push before finishing off the Kowloon chapter. I'll shoot for the mini pool table as well, as that's the only slot machine related toy I'm short (bar the certificates). Damn Shenmue and its super fun capsule toy collecting, its bizarrely additive for something that is essentially pointless.
 
In Kowloon there's a Dural Gold lucky hit stand (in the Thousand White Building, i think???)

Not the easiest game, but definitely easier than the move scrolls on Dragon St.
 
I can't do either lol. I'm content with just not getting it this playhtough, I'd rather focus on street fighting at this point.
 
So I went back to toy hunting since I was on the off day before storming the Yellowhead building, and damn did I have a great run of luck. Managed to get all the Virtual On toys I was short, all the AM2 toys including the awesome Outrun car, got the Panzer Dragoon toy all of which I was happy about as I'd been trying to get them for ages. Then I tried my luck again with the VF toys - and yeah, got a Gold Dural now! Super happy after pumping so much money into it! Then I went over to a VF Kids machine and got clear Dural in just a couple of tries, which was actually far more lucky.
Also hit the slot machines and got the 50,000 cert and the mini pool table. I'm still missing the other certs and the Afterburner machine though, I just could not get good at that game no matter how much I tried :(

Oh well, I'm happy now! Got pretty much a full collection.
 
Well I find my Gold Dural Today I will present the numbers of Draw I made I took me 4 days I find 14 silver durals before the m@&&:;& golden appear you need to had so much PATIENCE in this objective and I find it , is very hard and is a lie that’s is 1/400 chances , for the silver dural is all right 1/100 but not for the gold one. Well here is my list of try and when I find any silver durals before I find the golden one

150 - 1 dural silver 23/04
271 - 2 dural silver 24/04
470 - 3 dural silver 25/04
676 - 4 dural silver 25/04
684 - 5 dural silver 25/04
775 - 6 dural silver 25/04
798 - 7 dural silver 25/04
823 - 8 dural silver 25/04
914 - 9 dural silver 25/04
978 - 10 dural silver 25/04
1.143 - 11 dural silver 26/04
1.229 - 12 dural silver 26/04
1.369 - 13 dural silver 26/04
1.425 - 14 dural silver 26/04
1.600 - 1st GOLD DURAL 27/04

You can see It took me 1600 tries to find him , never put X bottom to take the ticket I left Ryo get it automatically.

I hope this help any other people to want to try to find , I made this in a normal day in December 30 just before get my first day of job in the Harbor .
 
Yes it absolutely is. The chances of winning are doubled during the following days: Dec. 24 & 25, Jan. 1 - 4, Feb. 14, March 14.

Sorry to bring this theme again, but i did read in another post that the lucky day in Jan is the 14, but i did try the 14 and didn't looks like that day has more lucky, then the chances of winning are not doubled the Jan. 14, right? Are doubled the Jan. 1-4.

Thanks.
 
Well it's 2022 and I'm still trying to get Dural Gold. I refuse to get it first in Shenmue II -- it's coming out of Abe's store dammit!
 
Good luck! Literally only happened once in 20 years and of course was just messing about in a random save file--not even a real play through >:[
 
I'm in the process of acquiring all of the capsule toys, but I'm better off getting Gold Dural once I start my playthrough of Shenmue II.
 
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